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Wednesday 12 June 2019

EIA forecasts lower crude oil prices, but expected inventory declines present considerable uncertainty (6/12/2019)

In the June 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $67 per barrel (b) in 2019 and in 2020. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $59/b in 2019 and $63/b in 2020. In the June STEO, EIA forecasts Brent and WTI prices in 2019 will be $3/b and $4/b lower, respectively, than forecast in the May 2019 STEO, and the 2020 crude oil price forecasts are unchanged. The lower 2019 price forecasts reflect recent price declines in global crude oil prices, which lowered the starting point for EIA’s forecast. However, the forecast is highly uncertain, however, as reflected in high implied volatility for crude oil options, which EIA uses to inform a market-derived confidence interval of price ranges (Figure 1). Recent data for a variety of oil market indicators—macroeconomic and global oil demand growth, liquid fuels stock levels, refinery runs, production from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the effect of tariffs—point to continued price uncertainty. ... More »
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The Stages Of A Scam

1. Foundation Work: This is the preparations which are made before the scam is put in motion, including the elaboration of the plan, the employment of assistants and so forth.

2. Approach: Is the manner of getting in touch with the scammers victim — often most elaborately and carefully prepared.

3. Build Up: Rousing and sustaining the interest of the victim, rousing his emotions, showing him the chance of profit and filling him so full of anticipation and cupidity that his judgment is warped and his caution thrown away.

4. Pay-off or Convincer: An actual or apparent paying of money by the conspirators to convince the victim and settle doubts by a cash demonstration.

5. The Hurrah: This is like the dénouement in a play and no scam or con scheme is complete without it. It is a sudden crisis or unexpected development by which the victim is pushed over the last doubt or obstacle and forced to act. Once the hurrah is sprung the victim is clay in the scammer's hands or there is no game.

6. The In-and-In: This is the point in a scam act where the conspirator may put some of his money into the deal with that of the victim; first, to remove the last doubt that may tarry in the gull's mind.