U.S. crude oil production forecast to decline until mid-2021 before returning to current levels (11/12/2020)

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production generally declines through the first half of 2021 and increases in the second half of the year. EIA expects that declining legacy well production will offset production from new wells in the first half of 2021, resulting in U.S. crude oil production declines. As more new wells come online later in 2021 (supported by forecast year-over-year crude oil price increases), forecast new well production reaches levels that exceed the legacy well declines, resulting in increasing crude oil production (Figure 1). ... More »

U.S. refinery runs remain lower than the five-year average in most regions (11/4/2020)

Gross inputs to U.S. refineries, also referred to as refinery runs, have been lower than the five-year (2015-19) average since April, when responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) reduced demand for refined products such as gasoline, distillate fuel, and jet fuel. Since the end of August, the continued effects of the pandemic in the United States and in crucial destinations for U.S. petroleum exports in Europe and Latin America, in addition to seasonal factors, have resulted in continued lower refinery runs. The sustained lower runs throughout 2020 combined with relatively low crack spreads—an approximate indication of the profitability of refining based on the relative values of gasoline, distillate, and crude oil—have resulted in several announced refinery closures in the United States and abroad. ... More »

EIA forecasts OPEC net oil export revenues in 2020 to be the lowest in 17 years (10/28/2020)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will earn about $323 billion in net oil export revenues in 2020, the lowest level in 18 years (Figure 1). EIA based this revenues estimate on forecast total petroleum liquids production—including crude oil, condensate, and natural gas plant liquids— forecast total petroleum consumption, and the crude oil price forecasts in the October 2020 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The expected decrease in export revenues compared with last year is driven by lower crude oil prices and lower export volumes. Crude oil prices have fallen as a result of lower global demand for petroleum products because of COVID-19 and associated mitigation efforts. Export volumes have also decreased as a result of high production disruptions in Libya, Iran, and, to a lesser extent, Venezuela and OPEC agreements to limit crude oil output in response to low crude oil prices. ... More »

Crude oil tanker rates likely to remain low until petroleum demand increases (10/21/2020)

In March and April 2020, the reduced demand for crude oil and petroleum products because of responses to COVID-19 led to a sharp increase in global crude oil inventories. As onshore inventories increased, market participants turned to using oil tankers to store oil, which is typically more expensive than onshore storage. The drop in global oil demand and increased need for floating storage occurred at a time when global crude oil production (specifically from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC) and demand for crude oil tankers was high, driving up tanker rates. Tanker rates have declined significantly since peaking in March because crude oil production and demand are now more balanced. However, oil inventories in floating storage remain relatively high. ... More »

EIA expects current, record-high U.S. distillate inventories to fall gradually through the winter heating season (10/15/2020)

U.S. distillate fuel oil inventories remained high through summer 2020 as a result of production outpacing demand, which continues to be affected by responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Although about two-thirds of distillate in the United States is consumed for on-highway use each year, demand typically increases during the fall harvest (October-November) in the agriculture sector and during the winter heating season (October–March) in the residential sector. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that increased demand in these sectors will help to draw down high U.S. distillate inventories, but inventories are still likely to remain higher than the five-year (2015–19) average throughout most of the upcoming winter season. EIA forecasts that high inventories and lower crude oil prices will continue putting downward pressure on diesel prices through the 2020–21 winter season. ... More »

Global crack spreads remain low amid slow oil demand recovery and high stocks (10/7/2020)

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that third-quarter 2020 global liquid fuels consumption averaged 94.2 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from the second quarter but significantly lower than the same time last year. The slow recovery has contributed to low gasoline and diesel crack spreads and high petroleum product stocks in three major petroleum product trading and refining centers-the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, and Singapore. Between April and September, the five-day moving average crack spread for each product in all regions, except for U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline, declined to their lowest levels since at least 2011 (Figure 1). September crack spreads remained significantly lower than their previous five-year (2015-19) averages. EIA has reduced its forecast for 2021 global consumption of petroleum and other liquids as a result of lowered expectations for economic growth in both 2020 and 2021, leading to a balanced global inventory outlook in 2021. ... More »