Planned refinery outages in the fourth-quarter 2018 are not expected to constrain availability of transportation fuels(10/31/2018)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) latest analysis of planned refinery outages for the fourth quarter of 2018 finds that planned outages in the United States are not likely to cause a shortfall in the supply of petroleum products—including gasoline, jet fuel, and distillate fuel—relative to expected demand, either nationally or within any U.S. region. EIA has reached this conclusion despite the current high level of U.S. gasoline demand, which so far in 2018 has been close to the record high seen in 2017. ... More »

Low water levels on Rhine River disrupt petroleum product shipments ahead of winter (10/24/2018)

Low water levels on the Rhine River in Europe have resulted in transportation disruptions for shipments of petroleum products by barge, which in turn have resulted in higher freight costs and higher prices in markets upriver, such as southern Germany. These disruptions are occurring at a time when these markets typically build inventories of distillate fuel for space heating ahead of the winter. ... More »

EIA expects U.S. heating oil prices to be higher compared with last winter (10/17/2018)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that average household bills for most major energy sources of home heating will rise this winter. The increased expenditures are largely driven by higher energy prices, although in some regions colder forecasts for winter also drive up some expenditures. According to EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook and the October update of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the average household that uses heating oil is forecast to spend about $269 (20%) more this winter compared with last winter (Figure 1). ... More »

Iranian sanctions contribute to supply uncertainty (10/11/2018)

In the October 2018 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased the forecast spot price for Brent crude oil to $74 per barrel (b) in 2018 and to $75/b in 2019, up by $2/b and $1/b, respectively, from last month's forecast. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $68/b in 2018 and $70/b in 2019. The October STEO forecast reflects market responses to significant uncertainty about the effects of sanctions on Iran and the response members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries might have. ... More »

U.S. crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by more than half in the past year (10/3/2018)

Crude oil inventories held at Cushing, Oklahoma, decreased by more than half since this time last year, recently falling to lows last reached in 2014. Logistical factors and strong demand for crude oil from both domestic refining and exports markets have contributed to the steep year-over-year decrease. Because inventories can satisfy either current or future demand, their levels are also sensitive to the relationship between the current price of oil and the expectations of future prices. Since October 2017, the forward curve of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures prices has been in backwardation, where near-term deliveries are priced higher than long-term deliveries. ... More »