The United States is projected to be a net exporter of crude oil in two AEO2020 side cases (1/29/2020)

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), projected volumes of U.S. net imports of crude oil are primarily driven by domestic crude oil production and vary widely by case. The larger volumes of domestic production in the High Oil and Gas Supply case relative to the Reference case result in the United States exporting more crude oil than it imports (a net exporter) after 2024. In the High Oil Price case, the United States is a net exporter of crude oil from 2023 through 2027 as a result of a decline in U.S. petroleum consumption and higher domestic production, which also contribute to net exports. On a combined crude oil and petroleum product basis, the United States became a net exporter in September 2019. ... More »

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production growth to slow in 2021 (1/23/2020)

In the January 2020 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019 production levels, and 13.7 million b/d in 2021, a 3% increase from 2020. Slowing crude oil production growth results from a decline in drilling rigs during the past year that EIA expects will continue through most of 2020. Despite the decline in rigs, EIA forecasts production will continue to grow as rig efficiency and well-level productivity rise, offsetting the decline in the number of rigs until drilling activity accelerates in 2021. ... More »

EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will fall during the first half of 2020, then increase through 2021 (1/15/2020)

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $65 per barrel (b) in 2020 and $68/b in 2021 (Figure 1). EIA forecasts that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price will average $59/b in 2020 and $62/b in 2021. EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will remain elevated in the first few months of 2020, reflecting a price premium on crude oil from recent geopolitical events. However, this price premium will diminish in the first half of 2020 and market fundamentals will drive the crude oil price forecast in the second half of 2020 and in 2021. ... More »

Crude oil prices in 2019 were generally lower than in 2018 (1/8/2020)

The international benchmark Brent crude oil futures price averaged $64 per barrel (b) in 2019, $7/b lower than its 2018 average. The U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures price averaged $57/b in 2019, also $7/b lower than its 2018 average. Compared with recent years, both crude oil prices traded within relatively narrow price ranges in 2019. Brent prices reached a 2019 annual daily low of $55/b in early January and a daily high of $75/b in late April, resulting in a range of $20/b, the narrowest Brent price range since 2003. WTI prices ranged $19/b between $47/b and $66/b, the narrowest WTI price range since 2003. These narrow trading ranges occurred as a result of offsetting upward and downward price pressures, despite the largest single-day price increase since 2008, which followed the September attacks on Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and processing infrastructure. More recently, crude oil prices have increased following the January 3, 2020, U.S. military operation in Iraq, likely reflecting an increase in geopolitical risk. ... More »

This Week in Petroleum: Best of 2019 (1/3/2020)

Today's This Week in Petroleum articles were originally published throughout 2019. New feature articles of This Week in Petroleum will return on January 8, 2020. The retail price and inventory paragraphs, charts, and tables accompanying the feature article have been updated to reflect data from the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending December 27, 2019. ... More »