EIA forecasts global stock draws through 2021 (7/8/2020)

The disruptions to global petroleum supply and consumption as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and associated mitigation efforts have been significant. As road and air travel fell sharply when economies around the world went into lockdown in the first quarter and early second quarter of 2020, global liquid fuels consumption fell more quickly than production. Based on the mismatch between production and consumption of liquid fuels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global oil inventories increased by almost 1.3 billion barrels from the start of 2020 through the end of May. Inventory growth caused Brent crude oil spot prices to fall from a monthly average of $64 per barrel (b) in January to $18/b in April. In late April, when price declines were the steepest, market participants had concerns about the ability of global storage capacity to hold the quickly rising inventory. The situation in global oil markets has now shifted, however, and EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts global stock draws in every quarter moving forward through 2021. ... More »