EIA forecasts relatively flat crude oil prices despite lower global production growth (3/13/2019)

In the March 2019 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its crude oil price forecast to be slightly higher for 2019 because of tighter forecast balances and higher than expected prices during February. EIA forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $63 per barrel (b) in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with $71/b in 2018 (Figure 1). EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $9/b lower than Brent prices in the first half of 2019 before the discount gradually narrows to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and throughout 2020. EIA revised down global petroleum and other liquids production growth from the February STEO, largely because of downward revisions to the U.S. and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supply forecasts. The production forecast was revised down more than the consumption forecast, and as a result, global stock builds are expected to be lower, indicating a relatively tighter market compared with the February STEO. ... More »