October Short-Term Energy Outlook lowers crude price forecast for 2016 (11/12/2015)

The Short-Term Energy Outlook released on November 10 forecasts average North Sea Brent crude oil prices of $54/barrel (b) in 2015 and $56/b in 2016. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016. Current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report). Based on contracts traded during the five-day period ending November 5, the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectation of monthly average WTI prices are estimated at $35/b and $66/b for February 2016 widening to $28/b and $95/b for December 2016 (Figure 1). Key market uncertainties include the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth, and the responsiveness of non-OPEC production to low oil prices. ... More »