Retail gasoline prices in California decline from recent highs (10/30/2019)

On October 7, 2019, average California regular retail gasoline prices surpassed $4 per gallon (gal) for only the second time since 2014. The last time prices reached this level was in May 2019 as a result of planned and unplanned refinery outages in California. Crude oil prices are generally the primary driver of gasoline prices. However, California’s petroleum markets are isolated from the rest of the United States because of its lack of petroleum infrastructure connections to the rest of the country, so unplanned refinery outages in the state can have larger price impacts there than in other areas of the country. Planned refinery outages do not typically drive large price increases because refineries prepare ahead of outages to ensure adequate inventories and alternative sources of supplies are available. They do, however, place additional pressure on gasoline supply in a state with limited supply options. In addition, California requires a different gasoline specification than the rest of the country, further narrowing supply options. ... More »

Petroleum product exports rose slightly in the first half of 2019 compared with the first half of 2018 (10/23/2019)

In the first half of 2019, the United States exported 5.47 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum products, an increase of 19,000 b/d (0.3%) from the first half of 2018 and the slowest year-over-year growth rate for any half year in 13 years. Lower U.S. refinery runs in the first half of 2019 compared with the first half of 2018 and slowing global economic growth, which is limiting demand for petroleum products, likely contributed to lower exports. In the first half of 2019, increased exports of propane and distillate offset decreased exports of all other petroleum products. ... More »

EIA expects U.S. winter heating fuel expenditures to decrease (10/17/2019)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that most U.S. households will spend less on major home heating fuels this winter (October 2019 through March 2020) than last winter. Although EIA’s Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts that expenditures will fall across most fuels, the declines are likely to be particularly significant for households that primarily use heating oil and propane. For homes relying on heating oil, EIA expects winter fuel expenditures to fall by an average of 4.4%, from $1,570 during the 2018–19 winter to $1,501 for the 2019–20 winter. Similarly, depending on the region, propane expenditures are forecast to fall by an average of between 12.1% and 17.3%, significantly more than the respective 1.2% and 1.3% average declines expected for households heating primarily with electricity and natural gas. ... More »

EIA forecasts lower crude oil prices despite tighter global liquid fuels balances (10/9/2019)

In the October 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts lower crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2019 and in 2020 despite tighter global balances. The tighter balances are largely the result of unprecedented short-lived loss of global supply following the September 14 attacks on crude oil production and processing infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. The production declines contribute to overall stock draws in the second half of 2019 with a relatively large stock draw in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, however, EIA forecasts global supply growth will outpace global demand growth, resulting in an inventory build, offsetting some of the third quarter draws. EIA lowered its crude oil price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2019 by $1 per barrel (b) to $59/b, reflecting current price trends, and lowered its crude oil price forecast for 2020 by $2/b to average $60/b because of expected supply growth. ... More »

U.S. crude oil exports continued to grow in the first half of 2019 (10/2/2019)

In the first half of 2019, U.S. exports of crude oil increased to average 2.9 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase of 966,000 b/d from the first half of 2018. Also in the first half of 2019, U.S. crude oil exports set a new record-high monthly average of 3.2 million b/d in June 2019 (Figure 1). The number of U.S. crude oil export destinations also continued to grow, and now exceeds the number of U.S. crude oil import sources. ... More »