U.S. retail gasoline prices heading into Labor Day are lower than last year (8/28/2019)

The U.S. average retail price for all formulations of regular gasoline on August 26, 2019, was $2.57 per gallon (gal), 25 cents/gal (9%) lower than the price at the same time last year (Figure 1). This decline in the price of gasoline has been driven by lower North Sea Brent crude oil prices (a global benchmark for crude oil and the most relevant determinant of U.S. gasoline prices), drops in year-over-year demand, and high gasoline inventory levels. ... More »

2018 OPEC net oil export revenues highest since 2013, but likely to decline (8/21/2019)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) earned almost $711 billion in net oil export revenues in 2018 (Figure 1). The estimate is up 29% from 2017, but about 40% lower than the record high of almost $1,200 billion in 2012. The 2018 earnings increase is mainly a result of higher crude oil prices. The Brent spot price rose from an annual average of $54 per barrel (b) in 2017 to $71/b in 2018. However, EIA forecasts annual OPEC net oil export revenues will decline to $593 billion in 2019 and to $556 billion in 2020. Decreasing OPEC revenues are primarily a result of decreasing production among a number of OPEC producers. ... More »

Singapore gasoline crack spreads now among the world’s lowest (8/14/2019)

Asian refinery capacity expansions and increased throughput are affecting regional gasoline supply and crack spreads. Before 2015, gasoline crack spreads in Asia were frequently some of the world’s highest, reflecting low refinery capacity and high petroleum demand growth. However, since 2016, Asian gasoline crack spreads have fallen regularly to among the lowest globally. In China specifically, refinery investments and expansions have contributed to increasing gasoline yields and higher gasoline exports, up to 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 through June. These factors are contributing to downward pressure on gasoline prices and crack spreads in Singapore, the local market hub for petroleum products. In addition to ongoing Chinese refinery capacity expansions, increased petroleum product export quotas and slower transportation fuel demand growth within China are likely to result in continued increases in gasoline exports from China. ... More »

EIA forecasts moderate inventory builds in 2020 and lowers crude oil price forecast (8/7/2019)

In the August 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts relatively flat crude oil prices for the remainder of 2019 and through 2020 and a balanced global oil market in 2019 followed by modest inventory builds in 2020 as production growth outpaces consumption growth (Figure 1). In 2019, EIA forecasts that upward pressure on crude oil prices from supply-side constraints will be largely offset by demand-side concerns. In 2020, despite increased crude oil demand resulting from new regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO 2020), production is expected to increase more, offsetting the price impacts from increased demand. As a result of the offsetting price pressures, EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will remain relatively flat through 2020. ... More »