U.S. gasoline prices are slightly below 2018 levels heading into Memorial Day weekend, but are expected to rise (5/22/2019)

Heading into the 2019 Memorial Day weekend, regular gasoline prices averaged $2.85 per gallon (gal) nationally on May 20, 7 cents lower than last year's price of $2.92/gal before the holiday weekend. Although the national average price of regular retail gasoline has decreased for two weeks in a row, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. regular retail gasoline prices will average $2.92/gal during the 2019 summer driving season (April through September), 7 cents/gal higher than last summer, according to EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook. Strong gasoline demand, falling gasoline inventories, and higher gasoline refining margins will likely drive the price increase, as crude oil spot prices are expected to remain below year-ago price levels. ... More »

West Coast retail gasoline prices increase because of refinery outages and declining inventories (5/15/2019)

On May 6, 2019, the California retail gasoline price averaged $4.01 per gallon (gal) and the West Coast retail gasoline price averaged $3.71/gal. In comparison, the U.S. retail gasoline price averaged significantly lower at $2.90/gal. Gasoline prices have not neared the $4/gal price in California since the high crude oil prices in 2014 and the Torrance refinery outage in 2015 (Figure 1). Gasoline prices dropped slightly on May 13, 2019, with California prices averaging $3.97/gal. Since the beginning of 2019, the price of gasoline on the West Coast has increased by $0.68/gal and the price of gasoline in California increased by $0.79/gal. Over the same period, the price of Brent crude oil, the primary driver of U.S. gasoline prices, only increased by $0.40/gal. Reduced refinery production of gasoline due to planned and unplanned outages and declining gasoline inventories in a region with limited and expensive resupply options have contributed to the sharp increase in West Coast retail gasoline prices. ... More »

Inventory draws contribute to higher forecast crude oil prices (5/8/2019)

In its May 2019 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $70 per barrel (b) in 2019 and $67/b in 2020. This price forecast for 2019 and 2020 is higher than any previous STEO forecast in 2019. The 2019 Brent crude oil price forecast in the May STEO is $9/b higher than the January STEO forecast and more than $4/b higher than the April STEO forecast. The upward revision to the price forecast is a reflection of several factors, including higher-than-forecast actual prices in recent months, changes to the global supply and demand outlook resulting in tighter expected global oil market balances, and increased oil supply risks. ... More »

Inventory draws contribute to higher forecast crude oil prices (5/8/2019)

In its May 2019 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will average $70 per barrel (b) in 2019 and $67/b in 2020. This price forecast for 2019 and 2020 is higher than any previous STEO forecast in 2019. The 2019 Brent crude oil price forecast in the May STEO is $9/b higher than the January STEO forecast and more than $4/b higher than the April STEO forecast. The upward revision to the price forecast is a reflection of several factors, including higher-than-forecast actual prices in recent months, changes to the global supply and demand outlook resulting in tighter expected global oil market balances, and increased oil supply risks. ... More »

Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced the amount of crude oil used for power generation (5/1/2019)

Power plants in Saudi Arabia burned an average 0.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2018 directly for power generation, the lowest amount since at least 2009, the earliest year that data are available from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI, Figure 1). According to the JODI data, compared to all other countries, Saudi Arabia burns by far the largest amount of crude oil directly for power generation. Between 2015 and 2017, Iraq used the second-largest amount of crude oil for power generation (over 150,000 b/d on average), but has significantly reduced its direct crude burn since then. ... More »