EIA study concludes that changes at U.S. refineries are not responsible for increasing premium-to-regular gasoline retail price spread (11/28/2018)

Between 2010 and 2017, the U.S. average retail price difference between premium gasoline and regular gasoline doubled, from approximately $0.25 per gallon (gal) to $0.50/gal (Figure 1). However, in the 15 years before that period, from 1995 and 2010, the U.S. average premium to regular price spread increased $0.05/gal. The more recent price spread may be the result of a change in U.S. refinery operations or retail gasoline pricing dynamics. ... More »

Recent changes introduced in U.S. and Middle East crude oil futures markets (11/21/2018)

Several changes to crude oil futures markets this year have expanded the scope of available contracts for market participants. Two new light, sweet crude oil contracts for delivery in Houston, Texas, began trading recently, expanding hedging and trading opportunities for Permian producers, U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, and foreign purchasers of U.S. crude oil. Also, Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, began using the Dubai Mercantile Exchange's Oman contract for determining a portion of its Asian official selling price (OSP). Although not expected to disrupt the roles of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing, Oklahoma, or North Sea Brent as benchmarks, the new contracts as well as a major oil producer now using the Oman contract could alter current financial trading for crude oil. ... More »

While current U.S. Gulf Coast diesel crack spreads remain high, gasoline crack spreads virtually disappear (11/15/2018)

Gasoline crack spreads (the price difference between crude oil and gasoline) at key refining locations across the globe have fallen recently, while diesel crack spreads have remained relatively high. In the United States, gasoline crack spreads are declining not only because demand for gasoline has fallen more rapidly than what is seasonally normal, but inventories have also remained high. The crack spreads in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region of Europe and in Singapore, two global refining and distribution hubs, suggest markets in these regions are experiencing similar trends (Figure 1). ... More »

Global inventory builds put downward pressure on crude oil prices (11/7/2018)

In the November 2018 update of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) decreased its Brent spot price forecast from last month to $73 per barrel (b) in 2018, down $1/b, and $72/b in 2019, down $3/b. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $81/b in October, up $2/b from September. Despite the increase in monthly average prices, Brent spot prices declined from $85/b on October 1 to $75/b on October 31 (Figure 1). ... More »