EIA reports track U.S. oil production statistics and trends (5/31/2018)

With steadily increasing crude oil prices and rig counts over the past several months, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) continues to closely monitor U.S. crude oil production trends. EIA publishes several reports that cover current crude oil production conditions and how recent trends may affect the near-term outlook for the oil industry (Figure 1). Each product is distinct in its purpose, methodology, timeframe, and regional coverage. While some reports are estimates of current production volumes, others focus on forecasting future production. ... More »

Rising crude oil prices are contributing to higher gasoline prices heading into Memorial Day weekend (5/23/2018)

Heading into the 2018 Memorial Day weekend, regular gasoline prices averaged $2.92 per gallon (gal) nationally on May 21, up from last year’s price of $2.40/gal before the holiday weekend. This year marks the highest price ahead of the Memorial Day weekend since 2014, when the national average price of regular gasoline was $3.67/gal (Figure 1). Relatively higher crude oil spot prices, strong gasoline demand, and falling gasoline inventories are all factors contributing to higher gasoline prices. ... More »

Total liquid fuels inventories return to five-year average levels in the United States and the OECD (5/16/2018)

The extended period of oversupply in global petroleum markets that began before the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) November 2016 agreement to cut production has ended, and the large buildup of global inventories during that period has now been drawn down. As OPEC plans to reconvene on June 22, markets now appear more in balance, but uncertainty remains going forward. ... More »

EIA raises Brent crude oil price forecast by $7 per barrel in 2018 but expects prices to gradually decline through 2019 (5/9/2018)

In the May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $71 per barrel (b) in 2018 and $66/b in 2019, $7/b and $3/b higher, respectively, than was forecast in last month's STEO. Monthly Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $72/b in April, an increase of $6/b from March. April was the first month Brent crude oil prices averaged more than $70/b since November 2014. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $5/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019 (Figure 1). The higher price forecasts in 2018 result in increased forecast U.S. crude oil production growth compared with last month's forecast, which contributes to looser global oil balances in 2019. ... More »

U.S. Gulf Coast port restrictions impose additional costs on U.S. crude oil exports (5/2/2018)

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017, an increase of 527,000 b/d from 2016. This acceleration in export growth happened despite the fact that U.S. Gulf Coast ports cannot fully load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), the largest and most economic vessels used for crude oil transportation. Instead, export growth was achieved by using smaller and less cost-effective ships. Although much of the current focus has been on pipeline constraints limiting the amount of crude oil that can reach the U.S. Gulf Coast, potential shipping limitations are also relevant. ... More »

New Chinese crude oil futures contract could become Asian price benchmark (4/25/2018)

As Asia-Pacific oil demand continues to grow, some market participants believe the region needs an oil price benchmark based on local supply and demand conditions. Last month marked the beginning of trading for the new Shanghai crude oil futures contract in China. For the Shanghai contract to become an accepted regional benchmark, it will have to attract a wide variety of market participants, and its usage for price discovery must be established. ... More »