Inflows of gasoline and diesel into the Midwest fall as demand flattens and production grows (4/26/2017)

Over the past 10 years, increased refining activity and flat demand in the Midwest (Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 2) have allowed PADD 2 refiners to meet a larger share of the regional gasoline and diesel fuel needs. As a result, shipments of gasoline and diesel into the region have declined, while shipments to other regions have increased. Favorable product price spreads, infrastructure changes, and abundant cost-advantaged crude oil have facilitated the shift in net shipment patterns. Despite these changes, the Midwest is still typically a net receiver of gasoline and diesel fuels from other U.S. regions, especially during the summer driving season and refinery maintenance. ... More »

Inflows of gasoline and diesel into the Midwest fall as demand flattens and production grows (4/26/2017)

Over the past 10 years, increased refining activity and flat demand in the Midwest (Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 2) have allowed PADD 2 refiners to meet a larger share of the regional gasoline and diesel fuel needs. As a result, shipments of gasoline and diesel into the region have declined, while shipments to other regions have increased. Favorable product price spreads, infrastructure changes, and abundant cost-advantaged crude oil have facilitated the shift in net shipment patterns. Despite these changes, the Midwest is still typically a net receiver of gasoline and diesel fuels from other U.S. regions, especially during the summer driving season and refinery maintenance. ... More »

New pipeline capacity and other infrastructure changes can accommodate increasing Permian crude oil production (4/19/2017)

Increasing crude oil production in the Permian basin of western Texas and eastern New Mexico is filling available pipeline capacity, putting modest downward pressure on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil priced at Midland, Texas compared with WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma. However, the Midland versus Cushing discount, which recently widened to more than $1 per barrel (b), is unlikely to be either as large or as persistent in 2017 as it was following the rapid increase in Permian production over 2010-14. Pipeline capacity expansions and other market changes now underway appear poised to facilitate the efficient disposition of higher volumes of Permian crude oil. ... More »

Retail gasoline prices this summer are expected to be slightly higher than in 2016 (4/12/2017)

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that drivers in the United States will pay an average of $2.46 per gallon (gal) this summer for regular gasoline, according to EIA's Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook. The forecast price for summer 2017 (which runs from April through September) is 23 cents/gal higher than the average price last summer, but is still nearly 70 cents/gal below the 2012-2016 summer average (Figure 1). The price increase this summer primarily reflects slightly higher forecast crude oil prices compared with last year. Monthly average gasoline prices are expected to increase from the March price of $2.33/gal to $2.51/gal in July, then fall to $2.43/gal in September. ... More »

More Chinese crude oil imports coming from non-OPEC countries (4/5/2017)

China, the world’s largest crude oil net importer, increased the share of its crude oil imports from countries outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 2016. Of the country’s 7.6 million barrels per day (b/d) of 2016 crude oil imports, 57% came from OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia (13% of total imports), Angola (11%), Iraq (10%), and Iran (8%). Leading non-OPEC suppliers included Russia (14% of total imports), Oman (9%), and Brazil (5%). While total crude oil imports from OPEC exceed those from non-OPEC sources, crude oil from non-OPEC countries made up 65% of the growth in China’s imports between 2012 and 2016. Recent Chinese import data, crude oil price spreads, and non-OPEC production trends suggest continued growth in non-OPEC countries’ share of China’s growing crude oil imports. ... More »